When Amanda Botfeld first published her book A Girl’s Guide to Poker, people would always ask if she was a big gambler.
Her response? “I don’t gamble—I just play poker.”
Although it was a spunky and fun remark, the honest answer to the question is poker gambling or skill demands more explanation.
Keep reading to determine once and for all if poker is considered a gambling game.
Short-term vs Long-term Luck: Beginner vs Pro
Poker clearly has an element of luck—but it changes over time.
Let’s say you have NEVER played poker before. You are an absolute beginner learning how to play poker for the first time.
What do you think your likelihood is of winning a hand against one of the best professional poker players in the world?
- 20%
- 30%
- 50%
Believe it or not, the answer is closest to 50 per cent!
How is this possible?
A crucial concept to understand when determining if poker is gambling or skill is that any singular hand comes down to luck. Maybe you’re dealt much better cards than your opponent… after all, the best hand between two players is a coin flip at 50/50.
The dealer could give you a pair of gleaming aces, and the other person's cards are junk, or vice-versa. It's simply the luck of the draw.
The Role of Skill in Poker
However, were you and this professional poker player to play 100 hands—1,000 hands? 10,000 hands? Who do you think would be the likely winner?
Almost undoubtedly, the pro would win.
The more hands played, the bigger the edge the pro will have.
This phenomenon is where the skill in poker becomes apparent. While luck plays a significant role in any given poker hand, skill dominates over the long term.
Experienced players use their understanding of odds, psychology, and strategy to outperform less skilled opponents consistently.
They know when to bet, when to fold, and how to read other players' behaviours to their advantage.
Comparing Poker to Other Forms of Gambling
Let’s compare other examples with pure gambling games, starting with the lottery.
Are we skilled lottery players if we buy a lottery ticket and win? Of course not! We just got lucky. But how would we determine this?
If we were to play the lottery every day after that, we would repeatedly lose.
We cannot measure luck by any individual incident—advantages can be revealed only over a high frequency.
Another good example is roulette:
We all know that roulette is a gambling game. How do we know this? There are mathematical calculations which prove the inability to gain an edge. But on a more human level, we recognise roulette is a game of luck and chance.
If you keep repeating the same strategy—e.g., betting on number 11—you will eventually lose all your chips.
The fact that you cannot beat it over a large sample establishes it as a luck-based game.
Is Poker Luck or Skill? 888poker Settles the Debate
Check out the topic of is poker considered gambling in this recent 888Poker article (which you should read here if you want more insight on statistics proving the skill in poker).
Here are some highlights:
When does luck in poker become eclipsed by skill? At just under 1,500 hands—1,471, to be exact.
- 1,471 hands are usually between 19 and 25 hours in live poker.
- If you're playing one table, 1,471 hands are around 16 hours of online poker.
A beginner can rarely survive a full day of play. Expertise becomes necessary in the long run.
As evaluated in a 2015 paper, Study: Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker:
Elite poker players predictably perform better than a mere toss-up of luck or skill – as indicated in their world poker tournaments’ finishes.
Here are some key findings:
- Poker players who ranked in the top 10% in the first six months of the year were more than twice as likely to do similarly well in the next six months.
- Poker players who finished in the best-performing 1% in the first half of the year were 12 times more likely than others to do so in the second half.
- Players who fared poorly from the start continued to lose.
What Can We Conclude from These Stats?
These statistics demonstrate that skill plays a significant role in poker. If poker were merely a game of chance, we wouldn't see a consistent group of top performers.
The very existence of “professional poker players”—individuals who earn their primary income through poker over many years—proves that skill endures. Their success and longevity would not be possible if poker were solely luck.
Is poker gambling where a poker cheat sheet gets you paid?
No, because otherwise, people wouldn’t be able to make a sustainable living.
Yes, professional poker players do exist!
Indeed, there are real professional poker players (in both live and online casinos). In fact, a few are currently 888poker ambassadors!
Distinguishing Factors of Poker
The blend of skill and luck distinguishes poker from games like the lottery and roulette. Luck can and does influence the outcome of individual hands. However, skilful players consistently use strategies to improve their chances of winning over many hands.
Key factors include the following:
- Probability and Odds Calculation: Skilled players calculate the odds of various outcomes and make decisions based on these probabilities.
- Psychological Insight: Understanding opponents' tendencies and behaviours is crucial. Experienced players can bluff effectively and recognize bluffs from others.
- Adaptability: Successful players continuously adapt their strategies based on the population tendencies and evolving dynamics of the game.
Read more on winning strategies in the author Amanda Botfeld’s 888poker archive here. Even the cards you choose to play BEFORE the flop significantly impact your likelihood of success—and your edge over the competition.
Winning poker players study and master proven strategies.
They do not rely on the roll of the dice or the luck of the draw.
Unique Position Against ‘the House’
Poker is profitable as a casino game because you don’t play against the house, in poker terms.
Instead, you compete directly with other players. The casino takes a small percentage (the rake) from each pot. This structure means the casino has no vested interest in the outcome between players.
The casino earns the same amount regardless of who wins. It’s guaranteed profit.
In poker, you aim to win money from the other players, not the casino.
This dynamic underscores the game's emphasis on strategy and skill, making it a true battle of wits.
Conclusion: Is Poker Gambling?
So, is poker gambling? The answer is nuanced. In the short term, poker can appear as a game of chance due to the significant role of luck in individual hands.
However, poker is undeniably a game of skill over the long term.
Research-based studies and the consistent success of professional poker players emphasise that edges in poker are real and abundantly clear.
- Poker is a beatable game where your competition is other players rather than the casino.
- It occupies a unique space between gambling and skill-based games.
While luck influences the outcome of individual hands, the ability to consistently win over time relies heavily on skill.
This dual nature makes poker a fascinating and complex game—and a worthwhile pursuit.
